Due to their participation in the UEFA Nations League knockout phase, Germany were one of a number of nations starting their World Cup qualifying campaign in September – just nine months before the tournament begins.
As a result, they are in a group with just four teams, alongside Northern Ireland, Luxembourg, and Slovakia.
Sounds easy, right? Well, it’s easy until it’s not. And it has already proved not to be.
Indeed, Julian Nagelsmann’s side got their qualifying campaign off to the worst possible start, with a 2-0 defeat away to Slovakia in Bratislava.
The Germans will be sick of the sight of the Tehelne Pole Stadion, having lost the U21 Euros final to England there back at the end of June. New Newcastle United striker Nick Woltemade started in both games.
Germany were without Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz through injury for this one, but it wasn’t far from their first choice XI outside of that. Florian Wirtz, Joshua Kimmich and Antonio Rudiger all played.
Yet, concerningly, despite not being too far off their best side, it was a pretty average starting XI.
Jonathan Tah in a back four, Leon Goretzka and Serge Gnabry, despite his good form recently, are not players you want to be in your starting XI this close to the World Cup.
You may notice that all three of those players play and play regularly for Bayern Munich, but don’t be fooled. Tah’s best seasons came in the middle of a back three under Xabi Alonso at Bayer Leverkusen.
When playing in a back four, Tah’s lack of mobility and dynamism can be a serious issue. We saw it exposed during their victory over RB Leipzig last month.
Meanwhile, Goretzka and Gnabry’s best form simply came five years ago. They are not the same players anymore. Although, as touched on above, Gnabry has been in good form of late – he has not performed well for the national team in a while now.
Nmandi Collins is a player with a lot of potential at right-back, someone with a nice physical profile, but he is probably not fully cut out for the top level right now.
So, what can Germany do to fix this? And is it possible with the pool of players they currently have to choose from?
The first thing they can do is reintegrate Alexsandar Pavlovic into the midfield. Julian Nagelsmann pointed out that he has not been playing enough at Bayern – whether through injury or coach’s choice.
However, he is still a far, far better than option than Goretzka. Both on the ball and defensively. In an ideal world, Vincent Kompany will give him as many minutes as possible this season.
Interestingly, Nageslmann has decided to move Joshua Kimmich from right-back to midfield starting from this break. It did not feel like he was doing too much wrong when playing at right-back for the national team, despite playing in midfield for Bayern at the same time.
This does mean one more midfielder has to miss out, and gives them less choice at right-back, though the midfield options are not too hot at the moment, it should be said.
Nevertheless, it feels like the best bet would be to go for a double pivot of Pavlovic and Angelo Stiller, whilst playing Kimmich at right-back. That feels the most balanced and also most creative solution.
Germany looked pretty good on home soil at the Euros, but that was with Toni Kroos, one of the best midfielders ever, who isn’t around anymore. There isn’t the experience of Ilkay Gundogan to keep things together either.
The bench also looked pretty thin tonight. Indeed, Musiala and Havertz back in will make the squad deeper but it still feels like there could be a bit more life injected into the squad.
The three subs against Slovakia were David Raum, Nadiem Amiri and Karim Adeyemi. With all due respect, not the most inspiring subs in the world. You doubt any Slovakia players were thinking “oh no” when any of those three came on.
There is plenty of debate about Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, but the latter is certainly Germany’s best player. Their main man. And of course, both players will play better with each other than without.
When you have both playing, it becomes hard for the opposition to double up on either player because it will just free the other one up. The link up and dovetailing between the two can be almost impossible for any opponents to stop.
It is far from over in terms of qualifying, but this is a really poor start. As previously mentioned, there are only six games in this group, so you are looking at a three point deficit with just five games to go.
Interestingly, after Italy won the World Cup in 2006, they were knocked out of the group stages two times in a row, before not qualifying all together (twice).
After Germany won the World Cup in 2014, they were also knocked out of the group stage two times in a row. Is history about to repeat itself again?
On Sunday, Nagelsmann’s side will host Northern Ireland. Even a draw in that game would be pretty disastrous – and may even mark the end of his time in charge of the national team.
